I have been a audience of yours for years, always entertaining, we have a similar love of life and honestly, I must check your site what seems like daily for a new take on things. It’s also nice to see that you will be getting some acknowledgement. Like you, An interest has been got by me in Alibaba since the IPO.
Just appeared to good to be true and truthfully, is still. I’ve come to think that Alibaba is more of the social experiment for the PRC than the profitable business they pretend to be. What better way for the PRC to keep tabs on who, what, where and how much giving them a smart telephone and an alipay account all while having untethered usage of billions of US dollars.
Pure genius if you ask me. Anyway, I’m stunned at what you discover the market either does not have any idea, just doesn’t care and/or there is certainly only a surplus of cash available to keep stock prices inflated. Whatever it is, it seems protecting stock prices of basic principles or sky high valuations will be the new norm irrespective, and not only for Alibaba.
In any case, think of any investor you respect. I’ll just get back to Buffett (even though he’s wii example as he is such an outlier; he would overcome a lot of headwinds!). The relevant question becomes, would Buffett have been better off to reduce on his holdings when the CAPE 1 is close to 20x p/e? Despite what you are told by the desks, would any decent equity investor have had the opportunity to improve performance by lightening up their holdings each time this chart demonstrated a 20x p/e?
- 1 V.S.A. Sec. 315-320
- Efficiency-social balance
- ▼ May (5) Grandstream Demonstrates GXV3240 Video IP Phone Ru
- Doctorate level in business
And then what level of this p/e would they have to wait for to reunite in? For example, go through the original Shiller p/e percentage (CAPE 10) and make the same discussion. Which decent value investor would have been better off by modifying portfolio exposure relating to this metric? Graphs and Tables can inform elegant tales. But to show that into a good performance is another matter completely actually.
None of this is to say that the marketplaces won’t go down. It will go down. There is no doubt about that at all. The question is when, and by how much? Anyone can call a crash or a keep market. But not many can exploit it.